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Sports correspondent & historian with |
The New Zealand Warriors are in the rarefied air of the top two in the 2026 NRL competition, sitting just behind the benchmark side of the past decade, the Penrith Panthers.
I must admit my support for the Warriors has run hot and cold since their NRL debut in 1995.
The highlights of the Warriors’ two grand final appearances (2002 and 2011) have been countered by some abysmal performances, where they conceded 30 or 40 points through repeated errors.
A third of the way into the 2026 season, the NRL leaderboard bears little resemblance to the finish of last year’s competition.
The 2025 NRL champions, the Brisbane Broncos, sit in ninth place, while the Melbourne Storm – whom the Broncos defeated 26–22 in the final – languish second-last among the 17 contenders.
Canberra, who earned the Giltinan Shield as minor premiers, have fared no better, and are in ninth place after nine rounds of the 2026 NRL title race.
On the other side of the coin, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, West Tigers and Queensland Cowboys have jumped 10, eight and six spots respectively in this season’s early running.
A major factor in their improved performances is undoubtedly the NRL salary cap.
It was introduced into the NSWRL competition in 1990 and was rubber-stamped by the NRL at its inception in 1998.
The salary cap has one major function: it helps spread playing talent so that a few better-resourced clubs cannot simply buy up the best players available.
A lopsided competition would undermine the acclaim of “The Greatest Game of All”, as touted by passionate fans throughout Australia and New Zealand.
The 2026 NRL salary cap of A$11.95 million ($14.52m) for each club’s top 30 players seems like a mountain of money.
However, a number of superstars attract remuneration of more than A$1m per season, which takes a significant chunk out of the player payment budget.
Risk and reward go hand in hand for clubs that pay seven-figure salaries to attract and retain top players. The aim is to build a team around a star player. Get it right and clubs win premierships; get it wrong and coaches get the sack.
Now for my crystal ball view of how the rest of the season may unfold.
A confident Panthers side will go deep into the playoffs. The Warriors will work hard to make the top four, which offers the luxury of home games and a week off during the playoffs.
Mentioning the Panthers and Warriors leads me to what I believe is the Warriors’ biggest mistake: letting Ivan Cleary go – twice – both as a player and coach.
The Sydney Roosters are always a force at playoff time, while the Manly Sea Eagles, in seventh position, have proud traditions in NRL title races.
This season’s big improvers – the Rabbitohs, Tigers and Cowboys – will need to weather the dual challenges of fierce competition and injury concerns through the depths of winter. Ardent Queensland fans will say never write off the Broncos.
My instincts suggest the two finalists could come from the Panthers, Warriors, Sea Eagles and the Broncos.